Grigor Dimitrov vs Edas Butvilas — St. Tropez Round of 32

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Grigor Dimitrov
BUL6
Grigor Dimitrov
#127ATP
1744ELO
1736Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$32MCAREER
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWLWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
LTU
Edas Butvilas
#198ATP
1544ELO
1499Hard ELO
$103kYTD
$325kCAREER
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWWW
Dimitrov G.
vs
Butvilas E.

Grigor Dimitrov faces Edas Butvilas in the St. Tropez round of 32 on hard. Grigor Dimitrov holds the paper edge — ranked #127, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Dimitrov G.62%
Butvilas E.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Dimitrov G. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: Grigor Dimitrov has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 86 vs Edas Butvilas's 21).
  • Form trend: Grigor Dimitrov's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Edas Butvilas's has cooled.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 5 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dimitrov G.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Butvilas E.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.0+236 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Hard Elo 1499
7.5Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1544
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.64 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

21 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season
Dimitrov G.Butvilas E.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.4
5.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Dimitrov G.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Butvilas E.

Butvilas E.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Dimitrov G.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Dimitrov G.Butvilas E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
21
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
85
Break points won·Dominant
64
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
15
Tiebreaks·Dominant
97
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Dimitrov G.Butvilas E.
Freshness·
—
94

Butvilas E.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw