Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Roncadelli — Buenos Aires Round of 32

Buenos Aires · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
PER5
Gonzalo Bueno
#175ATP
1491ELO
1469Clay ELO
$192kYTD
$408kCAREER
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWWLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
URU
Franco Roncadelli
#264ATP
1495ELO
1478Clay ELO
$73kYTD
$201kCAREER
26 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLWLWLWWLL
Bueno G.
vs
Roncadelli F.

Gonzalo Bueno faces Franco Roncadelli in the Buenos Aires round of 32 on clay. Gonzalo Bueno holds the paper edge — ranked #175, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Bueno G.60%
Roncadelli F.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bueno G. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Gonzalo Bueno leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Lima 1 2020.
  • Fatigue load: Gonzalo Bueno carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 6 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bueno G.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Roncadelli F.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1469
Surface ELO
5.1+9 Clay Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1491
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1495
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Bueno G.Roncadelli F.
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
74%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
46%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Even
1.3
0.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bueno G.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Roncadelli F.

Roncadelli F.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Bueno G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Bueno G.Roncadelli F.
Clutch Rating·Even
45
41
Break points saved·Slight edge
29
19
Break points won·Clear edge
45
59
Deciding sets·Even
88
85
Tiebreaks·
68
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bueno G.Roncadelli F.
Freshness·
98
—

Bueno G.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
10°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-02-02M25 Lima 1Q32clayGonzalo Bueno6-2 7-6(5)

Draw