Nuria Brancaccio vs Maria Lourdes CarleTolentino Open - Tolentino Round of 32

Tolentino Open - Tolentino · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#229WTA
1494ELO
1486Clay ELO
$144kYTD
$621kCAREER
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
Center Court · 2nd on
#221WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
$181kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLLL
Brancaccio N.
6-3 4-6 6-4
Lourdes Carle M.
Brancaccio N.
6462
Lourdes Carle M.
3641

Nuria Brancaccio defeated Maria Lourdes Carle in the Round of 32 at the Tolentino Open in Tolentino, a clay court event. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 in favor of Brancaccio. Brancaccio converted 22% of her break points and won two service breaks to Carle's one, with Brancaccio committing two double faults and Carle committing three.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Brancaccio N.7/15
Lourdes Carle M.5/14

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-04W75 Bucharest 1QFclayNuria Brancaccio3-6 6-1 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
41%
Service points won·Even
54%
52%
Return points won·Even
46%
48%
Break points saved·Even
52%
52%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
12
27
Break points saved·Even
30
26
Break points won·Even
95
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
16
56
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
12
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Brancaccio N.39%
Lourdes Carle M.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lourdes Carle M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+25 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Clay Elo 1461
5.1Overall Elo 1494
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1484
5.7Leads 2–1 on clay
H2H
4.3Trails 1–2 on clay
4.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.56 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
83

Brancaccio N.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Lourdes Carle M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw