Harold Mayot vs Justin BoulaisSt. Tropez Round of 32

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#237ATP
1571ELO
1548Hard ELO
$130kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWL
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
#418ATP
1352ELO
1326Hard ELO
$50kYTD
$165kCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWLLLL
Mayot H.
vs
Boulais J.

Harold Mayot faces Justin Boulais in the St. Tropez round of 32 on hard. Harold Mayot holds the paper edge — ranked #237, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Mayot H.68%
Boulais J.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mayot H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Harold Mayot comes in with 2 days of rest and 163 games in 14d, vs Justin Boulais's 1 and 88.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Harold Mayot has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 29 vs 5).
  • Surface form: Harold Mayot 7 of 10, Justin Boulais 3 of 10 on hard recently — Harold Mayot the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.8+222 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1326
7.7Overall Elo 1571
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1352
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.43 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

8 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mayot H.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Boulais J.

Boulais J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mayot H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
29
5
Break points saved·Dominant
92
50
Break points won·Clear edge
22
5
Deciding sets·Clear edge
32
13
Tiebreaks·Dominant
8
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
56
66

Mayot H.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 99 games (7d) · Boulais J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 65%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw