Max Stenzer vs Alexander Bernard — M15 Columbia Qualifying Round of 16
M15 Columbia · ITF · Qualifying Round of 16
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Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
Stenzer M.vs
Bernard A.
Max Stenzer faces Alexander Bernard in the M15 Columbia qualifying round of 16 on hard.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTCStenzer M.20%
Bernard A.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Bernard A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Max Stenzer dropped the opening set before beating W. Mirarchi 6–7 7–6 11–9.
- Last match: Alexander Bernard dropped the opening set before beating I. Urribarrens Ramirez 5–7 6–4 10–8.
- Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
4.8Won 46% in USA (80)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
12 vs 20 matches
Statistics
Recent form1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
45%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
51%
Aces / match·Even
3.3
3.4
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
Recent formServe advantage — Bernard A.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Weather forecast
32°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 59%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.