Nishesh Basavareddy vs Mees RottgeringSan Diego 2 Round of 32

San Diego 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#167ATP
1722ELO
1681Hard ELO
$367kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 23 September 2026 ·
hard
#335ATP
1468ELO
1449Hard ELO
$61kYTD
$120kCAREER
19 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWL
Basavareddy N.
vs
Rottgering M.

Nishesh Basavareddy faces Mees Rottgering in the San Diego 2 round of 32 on hard. Nishesh Basavareddy is the paper favourite — ranked #167, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Mees Rottgering arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on hard to Nishesh Basavareddy's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Basavareddy N.87%
Rottgering M.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Basavareddy N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+232 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1449
8.2Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1468
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
56%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
57%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Basavareddy N.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rottgering M.

Rottgering M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Basavareddy N.

Serve advantage — Basavareddy N.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Basavareddy N.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
27°CDrizzle
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw