Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Lorenzo Joaquin RodriguezBuenos Aires Round of 32

Buenos Aires · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#164ATP
1576ELO
1554Clay ELO
$217kYTD
$375kCAREER
21 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWWLLW
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
#518ATP
1219ELO
1209Clay ELO
$19kYTD
$98kCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLWWWLW
Prado Angelo J.
vs
Rodriguez L.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo faces Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez in the Buenos Aires round of 32 on clay. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo holds the paper edge — ranked #164, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 340-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Prado Angelo J.64%
Rodriguez L.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Prado Angelo J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
3.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
9.3+345 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.7Clay Elo 1209
9.5Overall Elo 1576
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1218
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Hard → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Even
41%
44%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Prado Angelo J.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Rodriguez L.

Rodriguez L.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Prado Angelo J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
84

Rodriguez L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
11°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-11-12M15 Rosario 1FclayJuan Carlos Prado Angelo6-3 4-6 7-6(7)

Draw