Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Hugo DellienBuenos Aires Round of 32

Buenos Aires · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#251ATP
1412ELO
1404Clay ELO
$32kYTD
$367kCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLWLWWW
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
#129ATP
1637ELO
1624Clay ELO
$280kYTD
$3.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWLWL
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
vs
Dellien H.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida faces Hugo Dellien in the Buenos Aires round of 32 on clay. Hugo Dellien is the paper favourite — ranked #129, a roughly 220-point clay Elo advantage — but Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on clay to Hugo Dellien's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Pucinelli De Almeida M.52%
Dellien H.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.2Clay Elo 1404
Surface ELO
7.8+220 Clay Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1412
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 1637
3.6Trails 1–2 on clay
H2H
6.4Leads 2–1 on clay
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Hard → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Even
2.2
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

wins 55% of points on serve vs Dellien H.

Dellien H.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Pucinelli De Almeida M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
5
15
Break points saved·Dominant
36
69
Break points won·Dominant
43
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
52
Tiebreaks·Even
1
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
98

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 20 days rest · Dellien H.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
9°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw