Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Valerio Aboian — Buenos Aires Round of 32

Buenos Aires · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
ARG
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
#274ATP
1489ELO
1464Clay ELO
$144kYTD
$820kCAREER
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLWLWLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
ARG
Valerio Aboian
#350ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
$29kYTD
$145kCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
Olivieri G.
vs
Aboian V.

Genaro Alberto Olivieri faces Valerio Aboian in the Buenos Aires round of 32 on clay. Genaro Alberto Olivieri is the paper favourite — ranked #274, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage — but Valerio Aboian arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Genaro Alberto Olivieri's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Olivieri G.39%
Aboian V.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Aboian V. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Olivieri G.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Aboian V.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+125 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Clay Elo 1339
6.8Overall Elo 1489
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1348
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
4.95 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.08 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Olivieri G.Aboian V.
1st serve in·Clear edge
77%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
59%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
40%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.0
4.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Olivieri G.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Aboian V.

Aboian V.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Olivieri G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Olivieri G.Aboian V.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
26
12
Break points saved·Clear edge
24
39
Break points won·Clear edge
20
37
Deciding sets·Dominant
67
18
Tiebreaks·
63
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Olivieri G.Aboian V.
Freshness·Dominant
94
59

Olivieri G.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Aboian V.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
11°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw