Murphy Cassone vs Patrick ZahrajSt. Tropez Qualifying Round of 16

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 16
#318ATP
1429ELO
1393Hard ELO
$99kYTD
$347kCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 21 September 2026 ·
hard
#514ATP
1331ELO
1322Hard ELO
$28kYTD
$178kCAREER
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWLLL
Cassone M.
6-2 7-5
Zahraj P.
Cassone M.
672
Zahraj P.
250

Murphy Cassone defeated Patrick Zahraj 6-2, 7-5 in the St. Tropez qualifying round of 16. Cassone hit 3 aces and 1 double fault, while Zahraj had 2 aces and 1 double fault. Cassone converted 33% of break points and won 1 service break to Zahraj's 0.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Cassone M.11/11
Zahraj P.7/11

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
3.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
31
20
Break points saved·Clear edge
88
69
Break points won·Slight edge
18
10
Deciding sets·Slight edge
15
7
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
67
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Cassone M.70%
Zahraj P.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cassone M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+70 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1322
6.2Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1331
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.24 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
62

Cassone M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Zahraj P.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw