Moez Echargui vs Luca Potenza — St. Tropez Qualifying Round of 32

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
Moez Echargui
TUN
Moez Echargui
#378ATP
1416ELO
1408Hard ELO
$271kYTD
$570kCAREER
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 20 September 2026 ·
hard
Luca Potenza
ITA
Luca Potenza
#538ATP
1342ELO
1317Hard ELO
$15kYTD
$127kCAREER
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWLLW
Echargui M.
6-7 6-4 6-3
Potenza L.
Echargui M.
63662
Potenza L.
77431

Moez Echargui defeated Luca Potenza in the qualifying second round of the St. Tropez hard-court tournament. Echargui won the match 6-7, 6-4, 6-3. He hit 14 aces to Potenza's 2 and converted 36% of his break points to secure the victory.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Echargui M.9/16
Potenza L.7/16

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-11M25 Monastir 2R32hardMoez Echargui6-3 6-4
2025-01-24M15 Monastir 3QFhardMoez Echargui6-1 6-2

Statistics

This season
Echargui M.Potenza L.
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Echargui M.Potenza L.
Clutch Rating·Even
4
3
Break points saved·Clear edge
48
34
Break points won·Even
11
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
38
Tiebreaks·Dominant
42
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Echargui M.49%
Potenza L.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Echargui M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Potenza L.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+90 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1317
5.9Overall Elo 1416
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1342
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Echargui M.Potenza L.
Freshness·Even
67
69

Echargui M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Potenza L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw