M. Zhang vs Chase Ferguson β€” M25 Guiyang Round of 32

M25 Guiyang Β· ITF Β· Round of 32
#1424ATP
21 yrs
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LLLWLWLWWL
1 β€” 2
Sets
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 Β·
hard
#604ATP
$6kYTD
$35kCAREER
27 yrs
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Zhang M.
3-6 6-4 1-6
Ferguson C.
Zhang M.
3611
Ferguson C.
6462

Chase Ferguson defeated M. Zhang in the Round of 32 at the M25 Guiyang tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 in favor of Ferguson. Ferguson converted 67% of his break points and secured 4 service breaks, compared to Zhang's 1 service break.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum Β· Final
Zhang M.9/13
Ferguson C.12/13

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

  • Match story: Chase Ferguson came through a tight passage before pulling clear β€” 6–3 4–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve inΒ·
β€”
71%
1st serve points wonΒ·
β€”
67%
2nd serve points wonΒ·
β€”
52%
Service points wonΒ·
β€”
62%
Return points wonΒ·
β€”
38%
Break points savedΒ·
β€”
64%
Aces / matchΒ·
β€”
2.6
Double faults / matchΒ·
β€”
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match Β· updated 01:50 UTC
Zhang M.17%
Ferguson C.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite Β· Ferguson C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial Β· surface data limited
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial Β· surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
4.63 of last 6 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors β€” matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation β€” into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
22Β°CDrizzle
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw