Francesca Jones vs Alja Senica — Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana Round of 32

Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Francesca Jones
GBR1
Francesca Jones
#106WTA
1619ELO
1621Clay ELO
$494kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 15 September 2026 ·
clay
SLOWC
Alja Senica
#666WTA
$12kYTD
$23kCAREER
18 yrs
Last 10
LLWWWWWWWW
Jones F.
vs
Senica A.

Francesca Jones faces Alja Senica in the Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana round of 32 on clay. Francesca Jones holds the paper edge — ranked #106. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Jones F.87%
Senica A.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jones F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 5 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jones F.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Senica A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.28 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Jones F.Senica A.
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
55%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
50%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
48%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
0.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jones F.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Senica A.

Senica A.serving30% hold

wins 42% of points on serve vs Jones F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Jones F.Senica A.
Freshness·
74
—

Jones F.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw