Weronika Falkowska vs Kristina Novak

Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

POL

Weronika Falkowska

#320WTA

1253ELO

1214Clay ELO

$42kYTD

$232kCAREER

26 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLLLWWLLWW

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Sets

Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · 10:00

clay

SLOWC

Kristina Novak

#682WTA

1181ELO

1126Clay ELO

$13kYTD

$53kCAREER

26 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LLLWLLWWWW

Falkowska W.

Novak K.

Weronika Falkowska faces Kristina Novak in the Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana round of 32 on clay. Weronika Falkowska holds the paper edge — ranked #320, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Falkowska W.81%

Novak K.19%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Falkowska W. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Kristina Novak rising, Weronika Falkowska cooling.
Fatigue load: Weronika Falkowska carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Falkowska W.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Novak K.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.1+88 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.9Clay Elo 1126

5.9Overall Elo 1253

ELO gap

4.1Overall Elo 1181

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.37 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

3.23 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

38 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season

Falkowska W.Novak K.

1st serve in·Slight edge

60%

55%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

67%

61%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

48%

43%

Service points won·Slight edge

59%

53%

Return points won·Slight edge

50%

45%

Break points saved·Even

54%

52%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.5

1.7

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.0

4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Falkowska W.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Novak K.

Novak K.serving28% hold

wins 41% of points on serve vs Falkowska W.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Falkowska W.Novak K.

Freshness·

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Falkowska W.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

18°CPartly cloudy

Wind 3 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Weronika Falkowska vs Kristina Novak — Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana Round of 32