Sachia Vickery vs Carmen Lopez Martinez

W75 Le Neubourg · ITF · Qualifying Round of 16

USA

Sachia Vickery

#704WTA

1515ELO

1476Hard ELO

$43kYTD

$2.2MCAREER

31 yrs · 162 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLLLLLL

—

Sets

Monday, 14 September 2026 · 15:05

hard

ESP

Carmen Lopez Martinez

#836WTA

1086ELO

1079Hard ELO

$4kYTD

$24kCAREER

21 yrs

Last 10

WLLLWLLLLW

Vickery S.

Lopez Martinez C.

Sachia Vickery faces Carmen Lopez Martinez in the W75 Le Neubourg qualifying round of 16 on hard. Sachia Vickery is the paper favourite — ranked #704, a roughly 400-point hard Elo advantage — but Carmen Lopez Martinez arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 8 on hard to Sachia Vickery's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Vickery S.80%

Lopez Martinez C.20%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Vickery S. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Carmen Lopez Martinez dropped just 3 games past Luisa Hrda.
Last match: Sachia Vickery handed Savine Erler a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–2 win.
Surface form: Sachia Vickery 2 of 8, Carmen Lopez Martinez 3 of 8 on hard recently — Carmen Lopez Martinez the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Vickery S.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Lopez Martinez C.

2.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

10.0+398 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

0.0Hard Elo 1079

10.0Overall Elo 1515

ELO gap

0.0Overall Elo 1086

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

2.93 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

3.13 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

9 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season

Vickery S.Lopez Martinez C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

61%

54%

1st serve points won·Even

56%

55%

2nd serve points won·Even

40%

42%

Service points won·Even

49%

Return points won·Even

40%

44%

Break points saved·Even

46%

50%

Aces / match·Even

1.2

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.2

4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Vickery S.serving45% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Lopez Martinez C.

Lopez Martinez C.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Vickery S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

26°CMainly clear

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Sachia Vickery vs Carmen Lopez Martinez — W75 Le Neubourg Qualifying Round of 16