Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Nagel — Rennes Round of 32
Rennes · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#168ATP
1538ELO
1551Hard ELO
$338kYTD
$921kCAREER
23 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLLWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 14 September 2026 ·
hard
Maestrelli F.vs
Nagel A.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTCMaestrelli F.70%
Nagel A.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Maestrelli F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form0.0
Win streak0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set countSurface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
20 vs 5 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
39%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.6
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.8
3.0
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 5). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Maestrelli F.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·
69
—
Maestrelli F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 87%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.