Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith — Tiburon Round of 32

Tiburon · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Mitchell Krueger
USA
Mitchell Krueger
#358ATP
1461ELO
1436Hard ELO
$68kYTD
$2.0MCAREER
32 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWLLLL
—
Sets
Monday, 14 September 2026 ·
hard
Keegan Smith
USA7
Keegan Smith
#193ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
$108kYTD
$255kCAREER
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWLLWW
Krueger M.
vs
Smith K.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Krueger M.32%
Smith K.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Smith K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Krueger M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Smith K.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+41 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1395
5.5Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1421
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
1.21 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.3Won 71% in USA (21)
Country comfort
6.5Won 74% in USA (82)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

18 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Krueger M.Smith K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
74%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.1
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Krueger M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Smith K.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Krueger M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Krueger M.Smith K.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
7
26
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
84
Break points won·Dominant
34
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
0
48
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
0
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Krueger M.Smith K.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Krueger M.: 19 days rest · Smith K.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw