Alastair Gray vs Patrick Maloney — Tiburon Round of 32
Tiburon · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#287ATP
1390ELO
1370Hard ELO
$38kYTD
$331kCAREER
28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Sets
Monday, 14 September 2026 ·
hard
Gray A.vs
Maloney P.
Alastair Gray faces Patrick Maloney in the Tiburon round of 32 on hard. Alastair Gray is the paper favourite — ranked #287, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Patrick Maloney arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 6 on hard to Alastair Gray's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTCGray A.65%
Maloney P.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Gray A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Alastair Gray 1 of 6, Patrick Maloney 3 of 6 on hard recently — Patrick Maloney the sharper of late.
- Head-to-head: Alastair Gray leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Loughborough 1 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.2+97 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO3.8Hard Elo 1273
5.9Overall Elo 1390
ELO gap4.1Overall Elo 1321
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form3.03 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
5.9Won 65% in USA (84)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
21 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·
62%
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1st serve points won·
73%
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2nd serve points won·
49%
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Service points won·
64%
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Return points won·
38%
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Break points saved·
68%
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Aces / match·
7.4
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Double faults / match·
2.9
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Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Conditions
Weather forecast
19°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 66%
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-10 | M25 Loughborough 1 | R32 | hard | Alastair Gray | 7-6(1) 6-4 |