Darwin Blanch vs Stefan KozlovTiburon Round of 32

Tiburon · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#245ATP
1551ELO
1483Hard ELO
$228kYTD
$473kCAREER
18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLW
Sets
Monday, 14 September 2026 ·
hard
#297ATP
1429ELO
1408Hard ELO
$50kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLWLLWW
Blanch D.
vs
Kozlov S.

Darwin Blanch faces Stefan Kozlov in the Tiburon round of 32 on hard. Darwin Blanch is the paper favourite — ranked #245, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Stefan Kozlov arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 7 on hard to Darwin Blanch's 0.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Blanch D.69%
Kozlov S.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Blanch D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Darwin Blanch 0 of 7, Stefan Kozlov 2 of 7 on hard recently — Stefan Kozlov the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Darwin Blanch carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+75 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1408
6.5Overall Elo 1551
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1429
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
0.61 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.32 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
5.7Won 62% in USA (26)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.9
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.4
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Blanch D.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Kozlov S.

Kozlov S.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Blanch D.

Serve advantage — Blanch D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Blanch D.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw