Alexandr Binda vs Kosuke Ogura | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

Guangzhou · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 16

ITA

Alexandr Binda

#552ATP

1346ELO

1287Hard ELO

24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWLLWWWL

—

Sets

Monday, 14 September 2026 · 16:00

hard

Court 5 · 1st on

JPN

Kosuke Ogura

#821ATP

$8kYTD

$69kCAREER

30 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLLWWWW

Binda A.

Ogura K.

Alexandr Binda faces Kosuke Ogura in the Guangzhou qualifying round of 16 on hard. They have met once, Kosuke Ogura leading 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Binda A.65%

Ogura K.35%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Binda A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alexandr Binda 73 games in 14 days, Kosuke Ogura 26.
Last match: Kosuke Ogura won all two sets in tiebreaks against Daisuke Sumizawa.
Head-to-head: Kosuke Ogura leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M15 Monastir 26 2021.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Binda A.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Ogura K.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0First meeting on hard

H2H

5.0First meeting on hard

6.16 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.65 of last 10 on hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

19 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season

Binda A.Ogura K.

1st serve in·Slight edge

58%

63%

1st serve points won·Even

64%

66%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

48%

58%

Service points won·Slight edge

57%

63%

Return points won·Slight edge

40%

35%

Break points saved·Slight edge

45%

54%

Aces / match·Even

2.5

2.1

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.1

2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Binda A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Ogura K.

Ogura K.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Binda A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Binda A.Ogura K.

Freshness·Slight edge

Binda A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Ogura K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on Court 5 · Starts At 16:00 · up next on court

1Binda A. v Ogura K.This match
2Sinclair C. v Xiao L.Live
2-3

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

29°CDrizzle

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2021-07-14	M15 Monastir 26	R32	hard	Kosuke Ogura	6-2 7-6(4)

Alexandr Binda vs Kosuke Ogura — Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 16