Julia Riera vs Elina AvanesyanSao Paulo Round of 32

Sao Paulo · WTA · Round of 32
#144WTA
1563ELO
1488Hard ELO
$187kYTD
$989kCAREER
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWWWL
Sets
Monday, 14 September 2026 ·
hard
Quadra 1 · 1st on
#155WTA
1694ELO
1640Hard ELO
$74kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWWLWW
Riera J.
vs
Avanesyan E.

Julia Riera faces Elina Avanesyan in the Sao Paulo round of 32 on hard. Julia Riera holds the paper edge — ranked #144, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Riera J.45%
Avanesyan E.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Julia Riera comes in with 3 days of rest and 64 games in 14d, vs Elina Avanesyan's 21 and 0.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Elina Avanesyan has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 56 vs 26).
  • Stage: Julia Riera defends last year's round of 16.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1488
Surface ELO
6.9+151 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1563
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1694
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.24 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.73 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

47 vs 40 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
69%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
52%
Return points won·Even
47%
50%
Break points saved·Even
55%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
0.2
Double faults / match·Even
3.9
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Riera J.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Avanesyan E.

Avanesyan E.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Riera J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
26
56
Break points saved·Dominant
49
8
Break points won·Clear edge
73
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
39
92
Tiebreaks·
27

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
74
100

Riera J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Avanesyan E.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on Quadra 1 · Starting at 1:00 PM · up next on court

  1. 1Riera J. v Avanesyan E.This match
  2. 2Brace C. v Sierra S.

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
17°CDrizzle
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw