Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Max Alcala Gurri

Szczecin · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

ARG1

Facundo Diaz Acosta

#82ATP

1681ELO

1668Clay ELO

$374kYTD

$1.8MCAREER

25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WWWWLWWWWW

—

Sets

Monday, 14 September 2026 · 10:30

clay

ESP

Max Alcala Gurri

#177ATP

1581ELO

1564Clay ELO

$61kYTD

$174kCAREER

24 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWLLLW

Diaz Acosta F.

Alcala Gurri M.

Facundo Diaz Acosta faces Max Alcala Gurri in the Szczecin round of 32 on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta holds the paper edge — ranked #82, a roughly 100-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC

Diaz Acosta F.65%

Alcala Gurri M.35%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Diaz Acosta F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Fatigue load: Max Alcala Gurri carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 3 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Facundo Diaz Acosta 9 of 9, Max Alcala Gurri 5 of 9 on clay recently — Facundo Diaz Acosta the sharper of late.
Win streak: Facundo Diaz Acosta arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Diaz Acosta F.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Alcala Gurri M.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.3+104 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.7Clay Elo 1564

6.2Overall Elo 1680

ELO gap

3.8Overall Elo 1580

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

9.49 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.96 of last 10 on clay

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 3 matches

Statistics

This season

Diaz Acosta F.Alcala Gurri M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

64%

71%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

67%

62%

2nd serve points won·Even

53%

52%

Service points won·Even

62%

59%

Return points won·Even

43%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

60%

53%

Aces / match·Dominant

3.1

0.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.5

2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Diaz Acosta F.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Alcala Gurri M.

Alcala Gurri M.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Diaz Acosta F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Diaz Acosta F.Alcala Gurri M.

Freshness·Even

Diaz Acosta F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 96 games (7d) · Alcala Gurri M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

16°CMainly clear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Max Alcala Gurri — Szczecin Round of 32