Johan Nikles vs Saba PurtseladzeSzczecin Qualifying Round of 32

Szczecin · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
#424ATP
1319ELO
1306Clay ELO
$20kYTD
$197kCAREER
29 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLLL
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
clay
#578ATP
1220ELO
1110Clay ELO
$21kYTD
$179kCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWWLWLW
Nikles J.
vs
Purtseladze S.

Johan Nikles faces Saba Purtseladze in the Szczecin qualifying round of 32 on clay. Johan Nikles holds the paper edge — ranked #424, a roughly 200-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Nikles J.75%
Purtseladze S.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nikles J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.5+196 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Clay Elo 1110
6.2Overall Elo 1319
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1220
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.36 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
52%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
43%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
37%
Break points saved·Even
54%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
5.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
7.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nikles J.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Purtseladze S.

Purtseladze S.serving42% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Nikles J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
93

Nikles J.: 8 days rest · 6 matches (14d) · Purtseladze S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CRain
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 83%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw