Zhibek Kulambayeva vs Malaika RapoluLadies Open - Caldas da Rainha Qualifying Round of 16

Ladies Open - Caldas da Rainha · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 16
#476WTA
1402ELO
1267Hard ELO
$33kYTD
$224kCAREER
26 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWWWL
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
hard
Girodmedias Court 2 · 4th on
#352WTA
1396ELO
1383Hard ELO
$20kYTD
$61kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10
LWLWWLLWWW
Kulambayeva Z.
vs
Rapolu M.

Zhibek Kulambayeva faces Malaika Rapolu in the Ladies Open - Caldas da Rainha qualifying round of 16 on hard. Malaika Rapolu holds the paper edge — ranked #352, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kulambayeva Z.46%
Rapolu M.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Malaika Rapolu carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1267
Surface ELO
6.5+116 Hard Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1402
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1396
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
73%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
50%
49%
Break points saved·Even
57%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.8
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kulambayeva Z.serving41% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Rapolu M.

Rapolu M.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Kulambayeva Z.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
81

Kulambayeva Z.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on Girodmedias Court 2 · Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Yashina E. v Collins K.
    2-62-6
  2. 2Da Silva Fick G. v Judith Visscher S.
    6-46-756-3
  3. 3Rouvroy M. v Johnson S.Live
    3-2
  4. 4Kulambayeva Z. v Rapolu M.This match

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw