Hayu Kinoshita vs Victoria Rodriguez β€” Sao Paulo Qualifying Round of 16

Sao Paulo Β· WTA Β· Qualifying Round of 16
#224WTA
1546ELO
1531Hard ELO
$92kYTD
$131kCAREER
19 yrs
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LWLLWLLLLW
2 β€” 1
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 Β·
hard
Quadra 1 Β· 2nd on
#456WTA
1357ELO
1341Hard ELO
$26kYTD
$316kCAREER
31 yrs Β· 170 cm
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LLLWLWWLWL
Kinoshita H.
6-4 1-6 6-2
Rodriguez V.
Kinoshita H.
6162
Rodriguez V.
4621

Hayu Kinoshita defeated Victoria Rodriguez 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 in the Sao Paulo hard court tournament's round of 16. Kinoshita hit one ace and three double faults, while Rodriguez had no aces and one double fault. Kinoshita converted 40% of her break points and won four service breaks, compared to Rodriguez's five service breaks on 50% break point conversion.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum Β· Final
Kinoshita H.7/14
Rodriguez V.5/12

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

  • Match story: Hayu Kinoshita closed it out in three sets, 6–4 1–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve inΒ·Even
72%
73%
1st serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
63%
53%
2nd serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
48%
43%
Service points wonΒ·Slight edge
58%
50%
Return points wonΒ·Even
46%
49%
Break points savedΒ·Clear edge
57%
35%
Aces / matchΒ·Slight edge
1.6
0.4
Double faults / matchΒ·Even
1.4
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match Β· updated 16:50 UTC
Kinoshita H.76%
Rodriguez V.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite Β· Kinoshita H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model Β· 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+191 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1341
7.4Overall Elo 1546
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1357
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.35 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.53 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors β€” matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation β€” into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
FreshnessΒ·Even
80
80

Kinoshita H.: 1 day rest Β· 1 match, 25 games (7d) Β· Rodriguez V.: 1 day rest Β· 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21Β°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 82%

Draw