Luca Staeheli vs Maxwell Exsted — Tiburon Qualifying Round of 32

Tiburon · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
SUI
Luca Staeheli
#446ATP
$17kYTD
$44kCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWLWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
hard
CHUANG/DE LEON FAMILY COURT · 3rd on
USAWC
Maxwell Exsted
#863ATP
$5kYTD
$39kCAREER
19 yrs
Last 10
LWWWLWWLWL
Staeheli L.
vs
Exsted M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Staeheli L.65%
Exsted M.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Staeheli L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Staeheli L.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Exsted M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
4.8Won 46% in USA (26)
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
Staeheli L.Exsted M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
74%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
48%
62%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
44%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Staeheli L.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Exsted M.

Exsted M.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Staeheli L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

When it starts

3rd on CHUANG/DE LEON FAMILY COURT · Followed By · 2 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Pascual Ferra R. v Tu L.
  2. 2Lechno Wasiutynski F. v Zhu E.
  3. 3Staeheli L. v Exsted M.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw