Alana Smith vs Anastasia Tikhonova — Sao Paulo Qualifying Round of 16
Smith A.
Alana Smith faces Anastasia Tikhonova in the Sao Paulo qualifying round of 16 on hard. Anastasia Tikhonova is the paper favourite — ranked #262, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage — but Alana Smith has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Tikhonova A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Anastasia Tikhonova carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: Alana Smith leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W75 Edmond 1 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadTikhonova A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-11 | W75 Edmond 1 | QF | hard | Alana Smith | 6-2 6-3 |