Hayu Kinoshita vs Victoria Rodriguez — Sao Paulo Qualifying Round of 16
Sao Paulo · WTA · Qualifying Round of 16
—
Sets
Saturday, 12 September 2026 ·
hard
Kinoshita H.vs
Rodriguez V.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTCKinoshita H.74%
Rodriguez V.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Kinoshita H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
7.4+191 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO2.6Hard Elo 1341
7.4Overall Elo 1546
ELO gap2.6Overall Elo 1357
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.35 of last 10 on hard
Surface form2.53 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
45 vs 14 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
72%
73%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
53%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
50%
Return points won·Even
46%
49%
Break points saved·Clear edge
57%
35%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
0.4
Double faults / match·Even
1.4
1.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonBaseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Even
100
100
Kinoshita H.: 17 days rest · Rodriguez V.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 83%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.