Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu — Phan Thiet 3 Quarter-final
Moriya H.Hiroki Moriya faces Yuta Shimizu in the Phan Thiet 3 quarter-final on hard. Yuta Shimizu is the paper favourite — ranked #396, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Hiroki Moriya has won their only previous meeting. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Shimizu Y. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Hiroki Moriya 75 games in 14 days, Yuta Shimizu 14.
- Under pressure: Yuta Shimizu has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 22 vs Hiroki Moriya's 0).
- Head-to-head: Hiroki Moriya leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Tokyo 2022.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMoriya H.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Shimizu Y.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-03 | Tokyo | R32 | hard | Hiroki Moriya | 6-1 6-3 |