Lilian Marmousez vs Michele Mecarelli | M15 Budapest Round of 16

M15 Budapest · ITF · Round of 16

FRA1

Lilian Marmousez

#512ATP

1438ELO

1413Clay ELO

24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 13:00

clay

ITA

Michele Mecarelli

#893ATP

19 yrs

Last 10

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Marmousez L.

Mecarelli M.

Lilian Marmousez faces Michele Mecarelli in the M15 Budapest round of 16 on clay. Lilian Marmousez holds the paper edge — ranked #512. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC

Marmousez L.88%

Mecarelli M.12%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Marmousez L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Michele Mecarelli dropped just 4 games past Vilmos Krisztian Kovacs.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Surface form: Lilian Marmousez 6 of 10, Michele Mecarelli 5 of 10 on clay recently — Lilian Marmousez the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Marmousez L.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Mecarelli M.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.67 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.22 of last 5 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

10 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season

Marmousez L.Mecarelli M.

1st serve in·Even

57%

59%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

70%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

57%

47%

Service points won·Even

64%

60%

Return points won·Even

40%

Break points saved·Slight edge

60%

68%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.3

3.2

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.7

4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Marmousez L.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Mecarelli M.

Mecarelli M.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Marmousez L.

Serve advantage — Marmousez L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

22°COvercast

Wind 15 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Lilian Marmousez vs Michele Mecarelli — M15 Budapest Round of 16