Pavel Lagutin vs Max Alcala Gurri — Seville Round of 16

Seville · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
RUSQ
Pavel Lagutin
#474ATP
21 yrs
Last 10
WWWWWWWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ·
clay
Max Alcala Gurri
ESP
Max Alcala Gurri
#177ATP
1581ELO
1564Clay ELO
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWWWW
Lagutin P.
vs
Alcala Gurri M.

Pavel Lagutin faces Max Alcala Gurri in the Seville round of 16 on clay. Max Alcala Gurri is the paper favourite — ranked #177 — but Pavel Lagutin rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Lagutin P.27%
Alcala Gurri M.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Alcala Gurri M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Lagutin P.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Alcala Gurri M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.45 of last 6 on clay
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 9

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 3 matches

Statistics

This season
Lagutin P.Alcala Gurri M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
78%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
59%
Return points won·Clear edge
54%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
70%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.8
0.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Lagutin P.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Alcala Gurri M.

Alcala Gurri M.serving48% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Lagutin P.

Serve advantage — Lagutin P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Lagutin P.Alcala Gurri M.
Freshness·Clear edge
61
78

Lagutin P.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Alcala Gurri M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw