Samir Hamza Reguig vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Istanbul · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ALGQ

Samir Hamza Reguig

#682ATP

24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLLLWLLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 12:00

hard

CENTER COURT · 2nd on

JPN

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

#312ATP

1503ELO

1480Hard ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWLWLWW

Hamza Reguig S.

Dylan Hara Friend J.

Samir Hamza Reguig faces Jay Dylan Hara Friend in the Istanbul round of 16 on hard. Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the paper favourite — ranked #312 — but Samir Hamza Reguig arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Jay Dylan Hara Friend's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC

Hamza Reguig S.21%

Dylan Hara Friend J.79%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Dylan Hara Friend J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Jay Dylan Hara Friend dropped the opening set before beating Michele Ribecai 2–6 6–4 6–4.
Last match: Samir Hamza Reguig dropped just 6 games past E. Bulut.
Fatigue load: Samir Hamza Reguig carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Hamza Reguig S.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Dylan Hara Friend J.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.25 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.96 of last 10 on hard

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

4 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season

Hamza Reguig S.Dylan Hara Friend J.

1st serve in·Even

68%

66%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

58%

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

47%

49%

Service points won·Slight edge

54%

62%

Return points won·Slight edge

47%

39%

Break points saved·Even

56%

59%

Aces / match·Clear edge

2.3

4.6

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.5

3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Hamza Reguig S.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Dylan Hara Friend J.

Dylan Hara Friend J.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Hamza Reguig S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Hamza Reguig S.Dylan Hara Friend J.

Freshness·Even

Hamza Reguig S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d) · Dylan Hara Friend J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on CENTER COURT · Not Before 12:00 · 1 match still to finish ahead

1Tobon M. v Butvilas E.10:00
2Hamza Reguig S. v Dylan Hara Friend J.This match

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather forecast

27°CMainly clear

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Samir Hamza Reguig vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Istanbul Round of 16