Blake Ellis vs Max PurcellPhan Thiet 3 Round of 16

Phan Thiet 3 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#477ATP
1416ELO
1390Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLWLLW
Sets
Wednesday, 9 September 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#803ATP
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWLWW
Ellis B.
vs
Purcell M.

Blake Ellis faces Max Purcell in the Phan Thiet 3 round of 16 on hard. They have met once, Max Purcell leading 1–0, though this is their first meeting on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Ellis B.16%
Purcell M.84%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Purcell M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Blake Ellis comes in with 1 days of rest and 22 games in 14d, vs Max Purcell's 1 and 53.
  • Head-to-head: Max Purcell leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Australia F4 2018.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 9 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·
57%
1st serve points won·
74%
2nd serve points won·
48%
Service points won·
63%
Return points won·
33%
Break points saved·
68%
Aces / match·
10.9
Double faults / match·
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
41
32
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
87
Break points won·Slight edge
3
11
Deciding sets·Clear edge
78
62
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
38
18

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
86
85

Ellis B.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Purcell M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on CENTER COURT · Followed By · up next on court

  1. 1Jones M. v Moriya H.
    3-66-74
  2. 2Ellis B. v Purcell M.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CDrizzle
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2018-03-26Australia F4QFclayMax Purcell6-1 6-3

Draw