Valerio Aboian vs Andrea Pellegrino — Genoa Round of 16

Genoa · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
ARGQ
Valerio Aboian
#431ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ·
clay
Andrea Pellegrino
ITA2
Andrea Pellegrino
#129ATP
1674ELO
1654Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWLWLW
Aboian V.
vs
Pellegrino A.

Valerio Aboian faces Andrea Pellegrino in the Genoa round of 16 on clay. Andrea Pellegrino is the paper favourite — ranked #129, a roughly 310-point clay Elo advantage — but Valerio Aboian arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 7 on clay to Andrea Pellegrino's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Aboian V.39%
Pellegrino A.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pellegrino A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Aboian V.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Pellegrino A.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
1.1Clay Elo 1339
Surface ELO
8.9+314 Clay Elo edge
0.9Overall Elo 1348
ELO gap
9.1Overall Elo 1674
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
6.96 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
Aboian V.Pellegrino A.
1st serve in·Even
59%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
Return points won·Even
42%
38%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
3.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Aboian V.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Pellegrino A.

Pellegrino A.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Aboian V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Aboian V.Pellegrino A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
12
55
Break points saved·Dominant
39
67
Break points won·Even
37
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
18
82
Tiebreaks·
—
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Aboian V.Pellegrino A.
Freshness·Dominant
39
83

Aboian V.: 1 day rest · 6 matches, 154 games (7d) · Pellegrino A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw