Deborah Chiesa vs Lucija Ciric BagaricMontreux Nestle Open - Montreux Qualifying Round of 8

Montreux Nestle Open - Montreux · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 8
#333WTA
1449ELO
1460Clay ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLLWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 7 September 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 1st on
#364WTA
1257ELO
1253Clay ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWWLWL
Chiesa D.
6-3 2-6 2-6
Ciric Bagaric L.
Chiesa D.
6221
Ciric Bagaric L.
3662

Lucija Ciric Bagaric defeated Deborah Chiesa 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Montreux Nestle Open. Ciric Bagaric hit 3 aces and 6 double faults, while Chiesa hit 0 aces and 4 double faults. Ciric Bagaric converted 75% of her break points, compared to Chiesa's 43%, and both players won 3 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-25W35 TarvisioQFclayDeborah Chiesa3-6 7-5 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
45%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
51%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Chiesa D.71%
Ciric Bagaric L.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Chiesa D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.6+207 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Clay Elo 1253
7.4Overall Elo 1449
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1257
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
4.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.55 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
64

Chiesa D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Ciric Bagaric L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Draw