Valerio Aboian vs Lorenzo RottoliGenoa Qualifying Round of 16

Genoa · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 16
#431ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 September 2026 ·
clay
Center Court · 3rd on
#899ATP
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWLW
Aboian V.
3-6 6-3 6-2
Rottoli L.
Aboian V.
3662
Rottoli L.
6321

Valerio Aboian defeated Lorenzo Rottoli 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Genoa tournament on clay. Aboian hit 5 aces to Rottoli's 1 and converted 67% of his break points, compared to Rottoli's 40%. Both players won 2 service breaks apiece and committed 1 double fault each.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Aboian V.68%
Rottoli L.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Aboian V. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
39
68

Aboian V.: 1 day rest · 6 matches, 154 games (7d) · Rottoli L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw