Valerio Aboian vs Luca CastagnolaGenoa Qualifying Round of 32

Genoa · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
#431ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 6 September 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 4th on
#793ATP
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWLW
Aboian V.
6-3 4-6 6-2
Castagnola L.
Aboian V.
6462
Castagnola L.
3621

Valerio Aboian defeated Luca Castagnola in the Q32 of the Genoa clay tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 in favor of Aboian. Aboian hit 5 aces and 1 double fault, while Castagnola had 2 aces and 6 double faults; both players converted 3 service breaks each.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Valerio Aboian closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
59%
47%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Aboian V.64%
Castagnola L.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Aboian V. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.54 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.93 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
39
85

Aboian V.: 1 day rest · 6 matches, 154 games (7d) · Castagnola L.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw