Ryota Tanuma vs Hikaru Shiraishi — M25 Urayasu Round of 16

M25 Urayasu · ITF · Round of 16

JPN

Ryota Tanuma

#1316ATP

30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWLWLWL

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Sets

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 13:00

hard

JPN3

Hikaru Shiraishi

#517ATP

26 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLWLWLW

Tanuma R.

Shiraishi H.

Ryota Tanuma faces Hikaru Shiraishi in the M25 Urayasu round of 16 on hard. Hikaru Shiraishi holds the paper edge — ranked #517, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Tanuma R.36%

Shiraishi H.64%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shiraishi H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Ryota Tanuma dropped the opening set before beating Yuta Kawahashi 1–6 6–4 6–1.
Head-to-head: Hikaru Shiraishi leads the head-to-head 3–0. Last met at M15 Tanagura 1 2025.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tanuma R.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Shiraishi H.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

1.8Trails 0–3 on hard

H2H

8.2Leads 3–0 on hard

1.92 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

3.64 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

10 matches

Statistics

This season

Tanuma R.Shiraishi H.

1st serve in·

—

62%

1st serve points won·

—

70%

2nd serve points won·

—

52%

Service points won·

—

64%

Return points won·

—

35%

Break points saved·

—

64%

Aces / match·

—

2.3

Double faults / match·

—

1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Conditions

Weather forecast

29°CMainly clear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 85%

Head to head

0–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-10-24	M15 Tanagura 1	QF	hard	Hikaru Shiraishi	6-3 2-6 6-4
2025-07-04	M15 Tokyo 1	QF	hard	Hikaru Shiraishi	6-7(6) 6-4 6-2
2023-12-20	M15 Yanagawa 1	R32	hard	Hikaru Shiraishi	6-0 6-3