Luca Potenza vs Joel SchwaerzlerManacor Round of 16

Manacor · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#488ATP
1342ELO
1317Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Pista 4 · 2nd on
#171ATP
1577ELO
1519Hard ELO
20 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWWW
Potenza L.
6-2 6-2
Schwaerzler J.
Potenza L.
662
Schwaerzler J.
220

Luca Potenza defeated Joel Schwaerzler 6-2, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Manacor hard-court tournament. Potenza did not hit an ace but made one double fault, while Schwaerzler had two aces and three double faults. Potenza converted 40% of break points and won two service breaks to advance.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
55%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.0
6.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
3
55
Break points saved·Dominant
34
89
Break points won·Even
7
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
38
83
Tiebreaks·Dominant
2
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Potenza L.35%
Schwaerzler J.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Schwaerzler J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1317
Surface ELO
7.5+202 Hard Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1342
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1577
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
57
86

Potenza L.: 4 days rest · 4 matches, 117 games (7d) · Schwaerzler J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw