Ryan Nijboer vs M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento — M15 Madrid Round of 16

M15 Madrid · ITF · Round of 16
Ryan Nijboer
NED1
Ryan Nijboer
#532ATP
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
clay
ESPWC
M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento
#1566ATP
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWL
Nijboer R.
6-1 7-6
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
Nijboer R.
6772
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
1640

Ryan Nijboer advanced to the quarterfinals of the M15 Madrid tournament with a victory over M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento in the Round of 16. Nijboer won the match 6-1, 7-6, with both players converting a different percentage of break points. Nijboer had 3 aces and 3 double faults, while Alvarez Sarmiento had 1 of each; Nijboer secured 4 service breaks to Alvarez Sarmiento's 2.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Ryan Nijboer came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Nijboer R.Alvarez Sarmiento M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
70%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
73%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
51%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
1.3
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Nijboer R.78%
Alvarez Sarmiento M.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nijboer R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nijboer R.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nijboer R.Alvarez Sarmiento M.
Freshness·
100
—

Nijboer R.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
32°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 23%

Draw