Naoya Honda vs Naoki Nakagawa — M25 Urayasu Round of 16

M25 Urayasu · ITF · Round of 16

JPN8

Naoya Honda

#642ATP

1240ELO

1236Hard ELO

20 yrs

Last 10

WLLWLLWWWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 13:00

hard

JPN

Naoki Nakagawa

#773ATP

1289ELO

1271Hard ELO

29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLWWWLL

Honda N.

Nakagawa N.

Naoya Honda faces Naoki Nakagawa in the M25 Urayasu round of 16 on hard. Naoki Nakagawa holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Honda N.34%

Nakagawa N.66%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakagawa N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Naoya Honda lost just 0 games in a 6–0 6–0 demolition of Seiya Nakanishi.
Last match: Naoki Nakagawa dropped just 5 games past Yua Taka.
Head-to-head: Naoki Nakagawa leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at M15 Tokyo 4 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Honda N.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Nakagawa N.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.6Hard Elo 1236

Surface ELO

5.4+34 Hard Elo edge

4.4Overall Elo 1240

ELO gap

5.6Overall Elo 1289

2.2Trails 0–2 on hard

H2H

7.8Leads 2–0 on hard

4.55 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.95 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

12 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season

Honda N.Nakagawa N.

1st serve in·Even

54%

56%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

76%

82%

2nd serve points won·Even

54%

51%

Service points won·Even

66%

68%

Return points won·Even

42%

38%

Break points saved·Slight edge

53%

58%

Aces / match·Dominant

5.2

11.3

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.8

2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Honda N.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Nakagawa N.

Nakagawa N.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Honda N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

29°CMainly clear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 85%

Head to head

0–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-07-09	M15 Tokyo 4	R16	hard	Naoki Nakagawa	6-4 2-6 1-6
2023-09-06	M25 Sapporo 1	R32	hard	Naoki Nakagawa	7-6(6) 6-4