Joanna Garland vs Anastasia KulikovaW75 Tianjin Round of 16

W75 Tianjin · ITF · Round of 16
#201WTA
1536ELO
1546Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWLL
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
#307WTA
1419ELO
1403Hard ELO
26 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWLW
Garland J.
vs
Kulikova A.

Joanna Garland faces Anastasia Kulikova in the W75 Tianjin round of 16 on hard. Joanna Garland is the paper favourite — ranked #201, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Anastasia Kulikova arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last hard matches to Joanna Garland's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Garland J.80%
Kulikova A.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Garland J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Joanna Garland 3 of 4, Anastasia Kulikova 4 of 4 on hard recently — Anastasia Kulikova the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+142 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1403
6.5Overall Elo 1536
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1419
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.53 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

21 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
47%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.7
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Garland J.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Kulikova A.

Kulikova A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Garland J.

Serve advantage — Kulikova A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
82

Garland J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw