Keisuke Saitoh vs Chase Ferguson — M25 Urayasu Round of 16

M25 Urayasu · ITF · Round of 16

JPN

Keisuke Saitoh

#668ATP

25 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLWWWLWLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 13:00

hard

AUS7

Chase Ferguson

#640ATP

27 yrs

Last 10

WLWWWLLWWL

Saitoh K.

Ferguson C.

Keisuke Saitoh faces Chase Ferguson in the M25 Urayasu round of 16 on hard. Chase Ferguson holds the paper edge — ranked #640. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Saitoh K.43%

Ferguson C.57%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Chase Ferguson dropped the opening set before beating Yusuke Takahashi 4–6 6–1 7–6.
Last match: Keisuke Saitoh dropped just 5 games past Sena Okabe.
Fatigue load: Chase Ferguson carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Saitoh K.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Ferguson C.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

0.81 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.43 of last 6 on hard

0.0Lost last 3

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

2 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season

Saitoh K.Ferguson C.

1st serve in·Clear edge

56%

71%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

56%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

52%

Service points won·Slight edge

53%

62%

Return points won·Even

42%

38%

Break points saved·Slight edge

56%

64%

Aces / match·Clear edge

0.5

2.6

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.0

1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (2 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Saitoh K.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ferguson C.

Ferguson C.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Saitoh K.

Serve advantage — Ferguson C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

29°CMainly clear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 85%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.