Jay Clarke vs Pedro Martinez — Como Round of 16

Como · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Jay Clarke
GBR
Jay Clarke
#239ATP
1458ELO
1414Clay ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLWWLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
clay
Pedro Martinez
ESP2
Pedro Martinez
#148ATP
1580ELO
1550Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLLW
Clarke J.
vs
Martinez P.

Jay Clarke faces Pedro Martinez in the Como round of 16 on clay. Pedro Martinez holds the paper edge — ranked #148, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Clarke J.39%
Martinez P.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Martinez P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Clarke J. 0–1 · Martinez P. 2–0 · small sample
Martinez P. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay) · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Clarke J.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Martinez P.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1414
Surface ELO
6.7+136 Clay Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1458
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1580
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.84 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

24 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
Clarke J.Martinez P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.7
1.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Clarke J.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Martinez P.

Martinez P.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Clarke J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clarke J.Martinez P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
8
48
Break points saved·Clear edge
63
84
Break points won·Clear edge
21
36
Deciding sets·Dominant
10
72
Tiebreaks·Dominant
4
42

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Clarke J.Martinez P.
Freshness·Even
82
82

Clarke J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Martinez P.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 10 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 35%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw