Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Luca Castagnola β€” M15 Bologna Round of 16

M15 Bologna Β· ITF Β· Round of 16
#1175ATP
20 yrs
Last 10 Β· pre-match
WWWLWLLWWL
2 β€” 0
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 Β·
clay
#793ATP
24 yrs Β· 183 cm Β· Right-handed
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LWLWWLLWLW
Costanzo Baragiola Mordini T.
6-4 6-4
Castagnola L.
Costanzo Baragiola Mordini T.
662
Castagnola L.
440

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini defeated Luca Castagnola 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the M15 Bologna tournament on clay. Costanzo Baragiola Mordini hit 3 aces and 1 double fault, while Castagnola had 0 aces and 2 double faults. Costanzo Baragiola Mordini converted 40% of break points and won 2 service breaks to Castagnola's 1.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve inΒ·Slight edge
62%
67%
1st serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
68%
62%
2nd serve points wonΒ·Clear edge
32%
49%
Service points wonΒ·Even
54%
58%
Return points wonΒ·Even
42%
45%
Break points savedΒ·Even
47%
47%
Aces / matchΒ·Slight edge
0.8
1.7
Double faults / matchΒ·Dominant
12.0
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match Β· updated 08:50 UTC
Costanzo Baragiola Mordini T.36%
Castagnola L.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge Β· Castagnola L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial Β· surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (βˆ’0.5)
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial Β· surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (βˆ’0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
2.93 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors β€” matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation β€” into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
FreshnessΒ·
β€”
85

Castagnola L.: 3 days rest Β· 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
32Β°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw