Rafael De Alba vs M. Van Der Meerschen β€” M15 Madrid Round of 16

M15 Madrid Β· ITF Β· Round of 16
#1106ATP
24 yrs
Last 10 Β· pre-match
LWLWLLLWLL
0 β€” 2
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 Β·
clay
#585ATP
26 yrs
Last 10 Β· pre-match
WLWWWLWWWL
De Alba R.
4-6 4-6
Van Der Meerschen M.
De Alba R.
440
Van Der Meerschen M.
662

Mattias Van Der Meerschen advanced to the quarterfinals of the M15 Madrid tournament with a 6-4, 6-4 victory over Rafael De Alba in the Round of 16. Van Der Meerschen converted 71% of his break points and won five service breaks to De Alba's three. Both players hit two aces, while Van Der Meerschen committed one double fault to De Alba's four.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: M. Van Der Meerschen edged a tight contest from start to finish β€” 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve inΒ·Even
58%
54%
1st serve points wonΒ·Slight edge
61%
70%
2nd serve points wonΒ·Clear edge
39%
53%
Service points wonΒ·Slight edge
52%
62%
Return points wonΒ·Clear edge
28%
41%
Break points savedΒ·Even
58%
61%
Aces / matchΒ·Slight edge
2.1
2.8
Double faults / matchΒ·Slight edge
3.4
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match Β· updated 11:50 UTC
De Alba R.18%
Van Der Meerschen M.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite Β· Van Der Meerschen M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial Β· surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (βˆ’0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial Β· surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (βˆ’0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.72 of last 7 on clay
Surface form
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors β€” matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation β€” into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
36Β°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 15%

Draw