Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian SorgerPlovdiv 3 Round of 16

Plovdiv 3 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#428ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWLLL
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
clay
#408ATP
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWWWW
Aboian V.
vs
Sorger S.

Valerio Aboian faces Sebastian Sorger in the Plovdiv 3 round of 16 on clay. They have met once, Valerio Aboian leading 1–0. Sebastian Sorger brings the better recent clay form (9 of 10).

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Aboian V.51%
Sorger S.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
3.94 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.82 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
59%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
42%
41%
Break points saved·Even
59%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Aboian V.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Sorger S.

Sorger S.serving56% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Aboian V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
87

Aboian V.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 10 games (7d) · Sorger S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
31°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 37%

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-11M25 Osijek 1QFclayValerio Aboian6-4 6-4

Draw