Carl Emil Overbeck vs Luca Potenza — Manacor Qualifying Round of 16

Manacor · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 16
DEN
Carl Emil Overbeck
#293ATP
1293ELO
1271Hard ELO
25 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 ·
hard
Pista 3 · 4th on
Luca Potenza
ITA
Luca Potenza
#484ATP
1342ELO
1317Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWLWLLW
Emil Overbeck C.
3-6 3-6
Potenza L.
Emil Overbeck C.
330
Potenza L.
662

Luca Potenza defeated Carl Emil Overbeck in the Manacor qualifying round of 16. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-3 in favor of Potenza.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Emil Overbeck C.Potenza L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
57%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.0
2.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Emil Overbeck C.61%
Potenza L.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Emil Overbeck C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Emil Overbeck C.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Potenza L.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1271
Surface ELO
5.6+46 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1293
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1342
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Emil Overbeck C.Potenza L.
Freshness·Slight edge
80
72

Emil Overbeck C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Potenza L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw