Federico Arnaboldi vs Federico BondioliComo Round of 32

Como · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#516ATP
1328ELO
1289Clay ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWWLLW
Sets
Monday, 31 August 2026 ·
clay
#302ATP
1387ELO
1378Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLL
Arnaboldi F.
vs
Bondioli F.

Federico Arnaboldi faces Federico Bondioli in the Como round of 32 on clay. Federico Bondioli holds the paper edge — ranked #302, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Arnaboldi F.57%
Bondioli F.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1289
Surface ELO
6.1+89 Clay Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1328
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1387
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.23 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
39%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaboldi F.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bondioli F.

Bondioli F.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Arnaboldi F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Arnaboldi F.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw