Iga Swiatek vs Xiyu Wang — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
Iga Swiatek
POL8
Iga Swiatek
#8WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Xiyu Wang
CHN
Xiyu Wang
#82WTA
1772ELO
1724Hard ELO
25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWWWW
Swiatek I.
vs
Wang X.

Iga Swiatek faces Xiyu Wang in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Swiatek I.83%
Wang X.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Swiatek I. 10–2 · Wang X. 1–11
Swiatek I. better · different surfaces (Hard × Grass) · incl. team event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swiatek I.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Wang X.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.7+298 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.3Hard Elo 1724
8.6Overall Elo 2064
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1772
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.59 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Swiatek I.Wang X.
1st serve in·Clear edge
63%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
54%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
0.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Swiatek I.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Wang X.

Wang X.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Swiatek I.Wang X.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
3
Break points saved·Dominant
87
40
Break points won·Dominant
100
33
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
6
Tiebreaks·Dominant
97
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Swiatek I.Wang X.
Freshness·Slight edge
84
74

Swiatek I.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Wang X.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR16clayIga Swiatek6-3 6-4
2024-04-22MadridR64clayIga Swiatek6-1 6-4

Draw